12.05.04
WEATHER OFFICE, ALMANAC Nova Scotians should prepare for colder weather with normal amounts of rain and snow this winter - or warmer weather with more rain and snow. It sort of depends on who you listen to. Environment Canada released its winter forecast Wednesday. "For the next three months, temperatures through most of the Maritimes are going to be below normal," said Bob Robichaud, a weather-preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada. "All of Nova Scotia seems to be near normal for precipitation." In Halifax, the average temperature for December is -1 C, and -4 for January and February. Average precipitation is 160 millimetres in December, 150 in January and 114 in February. Meteorologists use a model of the atmosphere and examine large-scale weather patterns throughout the region and across the hemisphere. Temperatures and precipitation levels are listed as either below, above or near normal. Mr. Robichaud said long-range forecasts aren't as accurate as daily predictions. Environment Canada gives each forecast an accuracy level, usually ranging from 40 to 60 per cent. The forecast for Nova Scotia is rated at about 45 per cent, said Mr. Robichaud, which is fairly confident for a long-range forecast. But the Old Farmer's Almanac, which boasts an accuracy rate of 80 per cent, paints a different picture. "Nova Scotia will see milder temperatures, ever so slightly, but with frequent storms and snowfall greater than normal," said Jack Burnett, a research editor for the 2004 almanac. He said the almanac bases its forecasts on a 200-year-old formula stored in a safe in New Hampshire. He said the almanac applies the formula to climate history, standard meteorology and solar radiation measurements. This year, the almanac formula adds up to temperatures two degrees milder than normal in December and January, and five degrees warmer in February. Mr. Burnett said the milder weather will make for heavier snow, similar to a mid-November storm that left thousands of Nova Scotians without power. |